The Great Reset of Property Prices Is Underway. Brace for More.
The global financial crisis that began in 2007 reshaped the real estate market. Today, commercial real estate is facing a similar “Great Reset.”
It seems like the housing market is currently in a better position compared to previous economic recessions, such as the one in 2009. Back then, 26% of mortgaged residential properties had negative equity, while now it's only about 2.7%. Although industries reliant on debt, like commercial real estate, are facing challenges recalibrating to higher interest rates, it's unlikely that we're headed towards a major economic recession without a significant setback in the housing market.
The stability of the housing sector can help cushion against economic downturns, as it directly impacts consumer wealth and confidence, which in turn influences spending - a significant factor considering that consumer expenditures make up about 70% of the U.S. GDP. This stability enhances the likelihood of sustained economic growth rather than a descent into a recession.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 15, 2024, in response to a Bloomberg article by Alexandre Tanzi titled: "Seriously Underwater' Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US.
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The global financial crisis that began in 2007 reshaped the real estate market. Today, commercial real estate is facing a similar “Great Reset.” Property valuations are resetting, capital availability is restricted, and investment activity is curtailed. Thanks to stress on properties’ balance sheets, the situation is set to get worse. More than $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate loans will mature over the next three years. Traditional lenders and the securitization market are unlikely to provide a clear path to replacing these loans. Without one, property valuations will reset further and reprice at levels that reflect current economic conditions. Basically, investors need to prepare for further losses. For more market insights from Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman, follow him on LinkedIn.
Peachtree's Greg Friedman: Office real estate distress
Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman discusses whether there is an imminent commercial real estate disaster on 'The Claman Countdown.'
Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman discusses whether there is an imminent commercial real estate disaster on 'The Claman Countdown.'