It seems like the housing market is currently in a better position compared to previous economic recessions, such as the one in 2009. Back then, 26% of mortgaged residential properties had negative equity, while now it's only about 2.7%. Although industries reliant on debt, like commercial real estate, are facing challenges recalibrating to higher interest rates, it's unlikely that we're headed towards a major economic recession without a significant setback in the housing market.
The stability of the housing sector can help cushion against economic downturns, as it directly impacts consumer wealth and confidence, which in turn influences spending - a significant factor considering that consumer expenditures make up about 70% of the U.S. GDP. This stability enhances the likelihood of sustained economic growth rather than a descent into a recession.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 15, 2024, in response to a Bloomberg article by Alexandre Tanzi titled: "Seriously Underwater' Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US.
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Many pivotal moments in Greg Friedman's life occurred against the backdrop of major economic shifts. He graduated college right before the dot-com bubble burst, and coincidentally walked away from an internet company he started at the tail-end of the boom. Just after he founded Peachtree Group, the private equity firm he leads, the Great Recession began, and he and his partners had to shift their business model. Friedman knows first hand the power of pivoting, which he says helped to lead his firm’s success more than 15 years later. Peachtree Group now counts 250 team members across all of its divisions.
Amid a market downturn, the retail space continues to defy inflationary pressures. Retailers seemingly didn’t get the memo of a softened market and are instead poised to continue opening storefronts and leasing space across the US. How can this possibly be? Mortgage Professional America turned to Greg Friedman, founder and CEO of commercial real estate private equity investor and lender Peachtree Group for answers.
After many years focusing on the hospitality sector, Peachtree has recently expanded its investment strategy to other asset classes, transitioning from Peachtree Hotel Group to Peachtree Group. Together with its lending division, Stonehill, the private equity investor and lender is now active across all real estate sectors, including retail—which has been grabbing headlines in the past few years due to the multiple changes it underwent. Commercial Property Executive asked Peachtree Group Founder & CEO Greg Friedman to talk about the opportunities and challenges for investors looking at this constantly evolving asset class. Today, retail seems to be defying inflationary pressures as retailers continue to open storefronts and leasing spaces across the U.S. For more market insights from Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman, follow him on LinkedIn.
