Safe Harbor in Choppy Waters: Hotels Resilient in Volatile Market
The hotel industry has had a remarkable recovery in the post-COVID era, marked by strong fundamentals, limited supply and increased capital inflows, making it an attractive investment option.
Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman sat down with Bryan Younge, executive vice president at Newmark to discuss this remarkable recover and where the market is today. Bryan heads the hospitality practice group at Newmark and is a leading commercial real estate advisor. Below is a recap of his expert analysis and insights.
Listen to Peachtree's discussion with Bryan Younge, EVP Newmark here.
Hotel Industry Comeback
The industry witnessed an unprecedented come back after the pandemic.
Limited New Hotel Supply: Limited new hotel supply coinciding with high travel demand creates a favorable scenario for the existing hotel inventory to capitalize on the surging interest.
Investment Attractiveness: The hotel sector's resilience has increased its appeal as an investment vehicle, offering substantial returns. This is reflected in the significant capital and dry powder ready for investment in this sector.
Macro Challenges: Despite its success, the industry faces challenges like staffing shortages, wage growth and inflation.
Hotel Performance – Segment: Closely examined the performance across various segments of the hotel industry, including commercial, group, leisure, and extended stay, as well as different distribution channels. These channels are crucial for predicting occupancy trends and Average Daily Rate (ADR), especially in the current volatile inflationary environment.
Key observations include:
- The group segment, crucial for hotel revenue, experienced a significant decline during the pandemic but has recently fully recovered.
- Other segments, like online travel agents (OTAs) and FIT (Foreign Independent Travel) and wholesale channel, outperformed group and global distribution systems (GDS) in terms of recovery.
- The FIT and wholesale channel had a substantial initial setback but rebounded strongly in spring 2022, reaching levels 70% higher than in 2019.
- Seasonality patterns, resembling a heartbeat monitor, show three demand spikes in mid-spring, summer, and October, indicating a return to normalcy and balanced pricing strategies.
- Overall, the analysis suggests that while larger hotels faced challenges during the pandemic, smaller hotels remained more resilient due to less reliance on group bookings and other factors.
- The current trends indicate a recovery and adaptation in the hotel industry's various segments.
Predictive Analysis: Discussed methods for predicting future pricing trends in the hotel industry, including analyzing room rates and booking adjustments, the personal savings rate and its impact on the travel sector, and the performance of different hotel market segments and their recovery post-pandemic.
Transaction Market: An equilibrium is emerging in the transaction market, with buyers and sellers reaching common ground and avoiding distressed pricing. This indicates a healthy market with growth potential and abundant opportunities.
Related posts
ATLANTA (June 24, 2024) – Peachtree Group, a leading private equity firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, has been proudly named to Inc.'s annual Best Workplaces list. This prestigious recognition not only highlights our company's excellence but also our team's dedication to creating exceptional workplaces and company cultures. This award is a testament to our continuous growth and success, further solidifying our previous Top Place to Work recognition from USA Today.
"Recognitions like Inc.'s annual Best Workplaces and USA Today's Top Places to Work are particularly meaningful to us because they reflect our team members' positive feedback, something we deeply value," said Greg Friedman, Peachtree's managing principal and CEO. "Winning these awards demonstrates our commitment to culture and inclusion truly resonates with our team. We believe in providing a healthy work/life balance to support our team members. When our team feels cared for, they show even stronger commitment to their work, leading to positive business impacts and increased employee engagement."
Inc. selected 543 honorees this year. Each nominated company participated in an employee survey, which included topics such as management effectiveness, perks, fostering employee growth and overall company culture.
"Each year, Inc.'s Best Workplaces program recognizes the very best in terms of companies that have fostered a truly amazing culture," says Inc. editor-in-chief Mike Hofman. "We use hard metrics and data as well as qualitative measures for judging in order to find the very best—and we're proud that the program is highly selective."
In addition to being named as one of Inc.'s Best Workplaces and USAToday’s Top Place to Work, Peachtree’s Friedman, Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO, and Daniel Siegel, principal and president, credit, were recipients of GlobeSt.’s 2024 Best Bosses in Commercial Real Estate Award, celebrating leaders who exemplify ambition, financial acumen, exceptional people skills and inspire innovation through their exemplary leadership. In addition, Michael Ritz, Peachtree executive vice president, investments, and Siegel were selected as Commercial Real Estate’s Aspiring Leaders of 2024.
About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, the company manages billions in capital across acquisitions, development and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow its investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.
Contact:
Charles Talbert
678-823-7683
ctalbert@peachtreegroup.com
Cuts Looking Like Faith Rather Than Data-Driven
There is a record amount of debt maturities in 2024 at close to $1T, and another $1T over the next two years, notes Greg Friedman CEO Peachtree Group.
In this interview with Schwab Nework, he discusses commercial real estate and how the market is still pricing in 50BPS of cuts between now and the end of the year, and its increasingly looking like faith rather than “data driven.”
Watch the full interview here.
"Seriously Underwater" Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US
It seems like the housing market is currently in a better position compared to previous economic recessions, such as the one in 2009. Back then, 26% of mortgaged residential properties had negative equity, while now it's only about 2.7%. Although industries reliant on debt, like commercial real estate, are facing challenges recalibrating to higher interest rates, it's unlikely that we're headed towards a major economic recession without a significant setback in the housing market.
The stability of the housing sector can help cushion against economic downturns, as it directly impacts consumer wealth and confidence, which in turn influences spending - a significant factor considering that consumer expenditures make up about 70% of the U.S. GDP. This stability enhances the likelihood of sustained economic growth rather than a descent into a recession.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 15, 2024, in response to a Bloomberg article by Alexandre Tanzi titled: "Seriously Underwater' Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US.
Follow Greg Friedman and Peachtree Group on LinkedIn.
Learn more about Peachtree Group's Credit division.