Avoid Political Noise When Investing: A Market Update with Larry Adam, Raymond James

In our recent market update call, we hear insights from Larry Adam the Chief Investment Officer of Raymond James, alongside Greg Friedman, Managing Principal & CEO of Peachtree Group and Daniel Savage, VP Equity Capital Markets of Peachtree Group. One of the standout moments from the discussion was an intriguing investment takeaway that highlights the importance of consistent investing over trying to time the market based on political cycles.

Investment Insights Through the Decades

Consider this: if you had invested $10,000 in the stock market starting in 1970 and only remained invested during Republican presidencies, your investment would have grown to approximately $133,000 by now. Conversely, if you had only stayed invested during Democratic presidencies, your portfolio would have soared to around $700,000.

Now, here’s where the numbers become even more compelling. If you had stayed fully invested in the market, regardless of which party was in power, that initial $10,000 would have appreciated to an impressive $1.6 million!

The Lesson: Stay the Course

Timing the market based on political affiliation has proven to be less effective than maintaining a consistent investment strategy. As Larry Adam pointed out, It's more important to be in the market than trying to find the market. I think that's a critical lesson…”

The volatility that comes with political changes can tempt investors to pull back or make hasty decisions. However, history shows that those who remain patient and invested through all market conditions tend to reap the greatest rewards.

The key is to be in the market, not trying to outsmart it.
Slide Provided by Raymond James

About Larry Adam

Larry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as Chief Investment Officer. With over thirty years of experience in the financial markets, Mr. Adam brings a wealth of knowledge and valuable insights on the markets and economy to advisors and clients. As CIO, Mr. Adam develops the firm’s CIO view, a cohesive and comprehensive macro outlook, using insights and perspectives from the firm’s strategists. Mr. Adam presents at numerous client events and is renowned for his ability to explain complex concepts to investors.

Mr. Adam provides advisors and clients with in-depth guidance regarding the markets, including weekly and monthly commentary and quarterly outlooks. In addition to serving as President of the Investment Strategy Committee, he also sits on the Global Wealth Solutions (GWS) Diversity & Inclusion Campus Recruitment Committee, the GWS Executive Council, and the Alternative and Structured Investments Product Approval Committee.

Prior to joining Raymond James, Mr. Adam held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and Global Chief Investment Strategist for Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. He received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master’s degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. Mr. Adam is an adjunct professor at the Sellinger School of Business and Management at Loyola University, teaching classes in International Finance. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management® certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Mr. Adam is regularly featured on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s.

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Peachtree Group Expands Executive Team with New Elevations

Peachtree Group announced the elevation of three senior executives, expanding their roles to strengthen the firm’s executive leadership team. The promotions include Michael Harper to president of hotel lending, Jared Schlosser to executive vice president of hotel lending and head of CPACE and Michael Ritz to executive vice president of investments.
Jared Schlosser, Michael Harper, Michael Ritz

ATLANTA (April 3, 2024) – Peachtree Group ("Peachtree") announced the elevation of three senior executives, expanding their roles to strengthen the firm’s executive leadership team. The promotions include Michael Harper to president of hotel lending, Jared Schlosser to executive vice president of hotel lending and head of CPACE and Michael Ritz to executive vice president of investments.

"These appointments underscore Peachtree's commitment to its core growth initiatives in hotel lending, as well as fostering talent from within our own ranks, with an eye toward further diversifying its allocation strategies as it taps into new investment opportunities," said Greg Friedman, Peachtree's CEO and managing principal.

Since joining Peachtree in 2014, Harper has distinguished himself through a succession of leadership roles, directing the company's credit business, particularly in loan originations and strategic acquisition of credit portfolios. Since joining, he has led the team through over 500 investments totaling over $6 billion. As president, he is responsible for the entirety of Peachtree's credit platform for hotels, guiding all facets of the credit business.

Schlosser's promotion to executive vice president of hotel lending and head of CPACE reflects his exceptional performance and extensive knowledge of the hotel loan origination processes and the firm's Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy (CPACE) program. His significant contributions since joining the firm in 2019 have been crucial in advancing Peachtree's CPACE program, which now exceeds $800 million in transactions and has become one of the largest in the U.S. Furthermore, since taking over hotel originations at the start of 2022, Peachtree has completed more than $1.5 billion in hotel loans, further demonstrating his expertise and effectiveness in these dual roles.

Ritz has been elevated to the position of executive vice president of investments and will oversee Peachtree's credit and equity investments across commercial real estate and other ventures.  He joined Peachtree in 2017, and his promotion recognizes his expertise in successfully managing and growing a portfolio of investments that is now approaching $10 billion in transaction asset value.

 

Peachtree was recently ranked as the tenth largest U.S. commercial real estate hotel lender, its third consecutive year in the top ten, by the Mortgage Bankers Association ("MBA") 2023 loan origination rankings.

About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, we manage billions in capital across acquisitions, development, and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow our investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.

Contact:

Charles Talbert

678-823-7683

ctalbert@peachtreegroup.com

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Safe Harbor in Choppy Waters: Hotels Resilient in Volatile Market

Peachtree Group's most recent webinar features Bryan Younge, EVP at Newmark, discussing the hotel industry in the post-COVID era. In his analysis he says the industry is marked by strong fundamentals, limited supply and increased capital inflows making it an attractive investment option.

The hotel industry has had a remarkable recovery in the post-COVID era, marked by strong fundamentals, limited supply and increased capital inflows, making it an attractive investment option.

Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman sat down with Bryan Younge, executive vice president at Newmark to discuss this remarkable recover and where the market is today. Bryan heads the hospitality practice group at Newmark and is a leading commercial real estate advisor. Below is a recap of his expert analysis and insights.

Listen to Peachtree's discussion with Bryan Younge, EVP Newmark here.

 

Hotel Industry Comeback

The industry witnessed an unprecedented come back after the pandemic. 

 

Limited New Hotel Supply: Limited new hotel supply coinciding with high travel demand creates a favorable scenario for the existing hotel inventory to capitalize on the surging interest.

 

Investment Attractiveness: The hotel sector's resilience has increased its appeal as an investment vehicle, offering substantial returns. This is reflected in the significant capital and dry powder ready for investment in this sector.

 

Macro Challenges: Despite its success, the industry faces challenges like staffing shortages, wage growth and inflation.

 

Hotel Performance – Segment: Closely examined the performance across various segments of the hotel industry, including commercial, group, leisure, and extended stay, as well as different distribution channels. These channels are crucial for predicting occupancy trends and Average Daily Rate (ADR), especially in the current volatile inflationary environment.

 

Key observations include:

  • The group segment, crucial for hotel revenue, experienced a significant decline during the pandemic but has recently fully recovered.
  • Other segments, like online travel agents (OTAs) and FIT (Foreign Independent Travel) and wholesale channel, outperformed group and global distribution     systems (GDS) in terms of recovery.
  • The FIT and wholesale channel had a substantial initial setback but rebounded strongly in spring 2022, reaching levels 70% higher than in 2019.
  • Seasonality patterns, resembling a heartbeat monitor, show three demand spikes in mid-spring, summer, and October, indicating a return to normalcy and     balanced pricing strategies.
  • Overall, the analysis suggests that while larger hotels faced challenges during the pandemic, smaller hotels remained more resilient due to less reliance on group bookings and other factors. 
  • The current trends indicate a recovery and adaptation in the hotel industry's various segments.

 

Predictive Analysis: Discussed methods for predicting future pricing trends in the hotel industry, including analyzing room rates and booking adjustments, the personal savings rate and its impact on the travel sector, and the performance of different hotel market segments and their recovery post-pandemic.

 

Transaction Market: An equilibrium is emerging in the transaction market, with buyers and sellers reaching common ground and avoiding distressed pricing. This indicates a healthy market with growth potential and abundant opportunities. 

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How Will the Fed's Pivot to Cut Rates Impact Development, M&A?

Peachtree CIO Brian Waldman shared insights with Hotel Investment Today on the impact of rate cuts on commercial real estate acquisition and lending opportunities.

Brian Waldman, CIO at Peachtree Group was one of the featured experts interviewed by Hotel Investment Today for this article. In conjunction with rate cuts, Waldman said he expects to see a surge in demand for both acquisition and lending opportunities. “The anticipated uptick in activity will likely be a major boon for Peachtree Group, presenting opportunities to assist groups in recapitalizing their assets as well as growing our owned hotel portfolio,” he said.

https://www.hotelinvestmenttoday.com/Forecasts/How-will-the-Feds-pivot-to-cut-rates-impact-development-MA?utm_medium=email&utm_source=email&utm_campaign=site+article__forecasts/how-will-the-feds-pivot-to-cut-rates-impact-development-ma