Cheddar TV: Will We See a Recession in 2025?

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GlobeSt - In a challenging era for CRE finance, these men, women, teams and companies have demonstrated exceptional prowess in navigating choppy waters. They managed to steer through a period of elevated interest rates and successfully grappled with falling property valuations, a trend that has made refinancing particularly tricky for many in the sector. Moreover, they have shown an uncanny knack for operating within capital markets that have become increasingly stringent. Their innovative solutions and steadfast leadership have paved the way for new opportunities in what has been an unpredictable market.  

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Greg Friedman offers a wide perspective on the real estate market. He uses the 10-year treasury yield as a market indicator but notes inconsistencies in the latest trends compared to real estate. Greg believes there will be better buying opportunities on the horizon once real estate finds a bottom to build a new foundation. Listen to the full broadcast on Schwab Network.

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In a timely and insightful conversation on the Peachtree Point of View podcast, host Greg Friedman sits down with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, to discuss the current economic landscape and what investors should be watching.

Recession Risks on the Rise

Zandi doesn't mince words about the current economic situation. He notes that the probability of recession has jumped from 15% to 35% in recent months, primarily due to policy decisions – especially the escalating global trade war. While he believes the economy remains"fundamentally sound," Zandi warns that continued policy uncertainty could tip the scales toward recession within weeks.

"If he continues down this path for another couple, three, four weeks, recession will be more likely than not," Zandi cautions about the administration's trade policies.

Interest Rates and Commercial Real Estate

For commercial real estate investors, Zandi offers a sobering perspective on interest rates. Despite the administration's desire for lower rates, he believes the 10-year Treasury yield (around 4.1%) is appropriately priced for a well-functioning economy. Unless we enter a recession, Zandi doesn't foresee significant rate decreases in the near term.

Commercial real estate, which Zandi acknowledges has"been in a recession the last three years," faces continued challenges. While he believes much of the valuation adjustment is complete, a broader economic recession would mean "another leg down in valuations and pricing."

Key Indicators to Watch

For investors trying to gauge recession risks, Zandi offers practical metrics to monitor:

• Weekly initial unemployment claims: Safe at 225,000, concerning above 250,000, and recessionary at 300,000
• Consumer spending patterns, which have "flatlined" since November
• Housing market metrics, particularly new construction activity

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Private Credit Markets

On private credit markets, Zandi noted that private credit has played a critical role in recent years, stepping in to provide capital when banks pulled back, which he believes helped the U.S. avoid a recession. The market has grown rapidly, now estimated at $1.7 trillion and surpassing the high-yield bond market and rivaling the size of the leveraged loan market.

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The Bottom Line

Zandi's parting advice? "Buckle up." With policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting consumer sentiment, the economic road ahead promises to be bumpy.

To hear the full conversation and gain deeper insights on navigating these challenging markets, listen to the complete episode of Peachtree Point of View with Mark Zandi on your favorite podcast platform.

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