In this episode of Peachtree's Point of View, Greg Friedman welcomes David Bitner, Global Head of Research and Executive Managing Director at Newmark, for an in-depth discussion on the commercial real estate landscape. They cover key economic and market trends, including the impact of sustained higher interest rates, the evolving debt market, and investment opportunities in a rapidly shifting environment. A major theme of the discussion is how higher interest rates continue to reshape commercial real estate valuations.
Commercial real estate investors and operators are facing a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with the era of ultra-low interest rates firmly in the rearview mirror. In a revealing conversation with Greg Friedman, David Bitner, Global Head of Research at Newmark, emphasizes that this change isn't temporary – it's a permanent feature of the investment landscape that requires a complete recalibration of expectations and strategies.
Looking ahead this year, Bitner anticipates continued volatility in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury likely to run between 3.8% and the mid-5% range. This volatility, coupled with ongoing economic uncertainty, will significantly impact transaction activity and asset valuations across all property types.
Despite these challenges, there are bright spots emerging. Office markets showed their first positive net absorption in 18 quarters during Q4 2023, suggesting a potential turning point. The industrial sector is poised for recovery, particularly in secondary and tertiary markets, driven by near shoring trends and over $530 billion in planned manufacturing investments. Multifamily properties, especially new construction, show attractive pricing dynamics relative to existing stock.
For investors looking to deploy capital, David suggests a balanced approach with a significant allocation to debt investments, where spreads appear more attractive than equity returns. He particularly highlights opportunities in direct lending and mezzanine debt, where returns can reach 14%. On the equity side, he points to value-add opportunities in trophy office conversions, though emphasizing the critical importance of submarket selection.
The wall of debt maturities remains a significant concern, with approximately $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing over the next couple of years. While banks have largely employed an "extend and pretend" strategy thus far, David suggests regulatory pressure and dwindling extension options could force more resolutions in 2025, leading to increased transaction activity and price discovery.
The podcast also touches on potential policy impacts from the new administration, including proposed tariffs and deregulation efforts, which could create both challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate markets.
For investors and operators in commercial real estate, 2025 promises to be a year of continued adaptation to new market realities. Success will require embracing volatility, adjusting return expectations, and taking amore targeted approach to investments across both debt and equity opportunities.
Peachtree Point of View explores today’s complex investment landscape, offering expert insights and actionable strategies to navigate dislocated markets and capitalize on mispriced risk. Each episode dives deep into market dynamics, equipping you with the knowledge to better understand and navigate the ever-changing financial world. Whether you're looking to invest, raise capital, or partner, we’ll reveal the tools and strategies needed to generate superior risk-adjusted returns.
The hotel industry has had a remarkable recovery in the post-COVID era, marked by strong fundamentals, limited supply and increased capital inflows, making it an attractive investment option.
Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman sat down with Bryan Younge, executive vice president at Newmark to discuss this remarkable recover and where the market is today. Bryan heads the hospitality practice group at Newmark and is a leading commercial real estate advisor. Below is a recap of his expert analysis and insights.
Listen to Peachtree's discussion with Bryan Younge, EVP Newmark here.
The industry witnessed an unprecedented come back after the pandemic.
Limited New Hotel Supply: Limited new hotel supply coinciding with high travel demand creates a favorable scenario for the existing hotel inventory to capitalize on the surging interest.
Investment Attractiveness: The hotel sector's resilience has increased its appeal as an investment vehicle, offering substantial returns. This is reflected in the significant capital and dry powder ready for investment in this sector.
Macro Challenges: Despite its success, the industry faces challenges like staffing shortages, wage growth and inflation.
Hotel Performance – Segment: Closely examined the performance across various segments of the hotel industry, including commercial, group, leisure, and extended stay, as well as different distribution channels. These channels are crucial for predicting occupancy trends and Average Daily Rate (ADR), especially in the current volatile inflationary environment.
Predictive Analysis: Discussed methods for predicting future pricing trends in the hotel industry, including analyzing room rates and booking adjustments, the personal savings rate and its impact on the travel sector, and the performance of different hotel market segments and their recovery post-pandemic.
Transaction Market: An equilibrium is emerging in the transaction market, with buyers and sellers reaching common ground and avoiding distressed pricing. This indicates a healthy market with growth potential and abundant opportunities.
Brian Waldman, CIO at Peachtree Group was one of the featured experts interviewed by Hotel Investment Today for this article. In conjunction with rate cuts, Waldman said he expects to see a surge in demand for both acquisition and lending opportunities. “The anticipated uptick in activity will likely be a major boon for Peachtree Group, presenting opportunities to assist groups in recapitalizing their assets as well as growing our owned hotel portfolio,” he said.
Greg Friedman and Mitul Patel form Peachtree Hotel Group as a family office to invest in premium-branded select service hotels.
Peachtree launched complementary divisions to develop and operate hotels, Peachtree Hospitality Development and Peachtree Hospitality Management, respectively. Over the next decade, the company continues to rapidly grow its portfolio of limited- and select-service hotels, becoming one of the nation's fastest-growing hotel acquisition, management, development and ownership groups in premium-branded hotels under the Marriott, Starwood, Hilton, Hyatt, and InterContinental Hotel group flags.
Jatin Desai joins Peachtree as managing principal chief investment officer and chief financial officer. The company expands investment offerings beyond equity investing into credit investments, acquiring debt positions secured by hotel and other real estate assets. As the Great Financial Crisis took hold, Peachtree implemented a distressed investment strategy and invested in 47 distressed hotels.
Peachtree launched Stonehill, a direct commercial real estate lending division, to focus on debt originations and note acquisitions. Stonehill focuses on transitional assets and sectors of the credit market that traditionally have had more limited access to financing, eventually becoming a top 10 U.S. commercial real estate hotel lender as ranked by the Mortgage Bankers Association ("MBA").
Peachtree Group reorganized from a family office to a vertically integrated private equity firm. The company launched its first investment vehicle focused on acquiring and originating debt investments in select-service hotels.
Peachtree launched its first discretionary equity investment vehicle to acquire and develop premium-branded hotels and other commercial real estate assets.
Peachtree launches Revive Land Group, a land development division focused on designing, entitling and developing residential and mixed-use projects. Revive has since transacted on over $50MM of real estate, consisting of over 1,100 residential lots.
Stonehill PACE was established as a direct lender focusing on property assessed clean energy for diverse commercial real estate asset classes. Over time, it evolved into one of the prominent CPACE providers in the U.S., securing over $600 million in CPACE financing. Also, Peachtree initiated a mortgage Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) specializing in financing income-generating real estate. This REIT's scope involved acquiring or originating mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. The company further expanded its endeavours by investing into hotel development within Qualified Opportunity Zones. This strategic move aimed to leverage the tax deferral benefits offered by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
Peachtree PC Investors (PPCI), a FINRA-registered broker-dealer, becomes Peachtree's exclusive managing broker-dealer for the firms' investment offerings.
The onset of the pandemic triggered an unexpected "Black Swan" event, plunging the U.S. into a recession and significantly impacting various sectors, notably the commercial real estate industry, particularly in hospitality. In response, Peachtree initiated its most extensive investment initiative to date, focusing on real estate and related assets. This strategic move aimed to capitalize on the emerging opportunities resulting from market disruptions, operational inefficiencies, under-capitalizations, and expected cyclical rebounds. Throughout this period, the firm executed transactions totaling $3 billion in asset value, encompassing debt and equity investments. Notably, Peachtree acquired over 180 first mortgage notes as part of its investment activities, positioning itself within a diverse array of real estate assets.
Continued disruptions caused by the pandemic have led to financial strain among ownership groups and developers due to reduced access to capital. In response, the company introduces its twelfth sponsored investment vehicle, aiming to engage in opportunistic debt and equity investments. This strategic move capitalized on emerging investment opportunities within the hospitality industry and other real estate sectors that have been impacted, too.
Gala Media Capital was launched to finance the production of films and television
Daniel Siegel joins Stonehill as Principal CRE, bringing a team of experienced originators outside the hospitality industry to expand Peachtree's commercial lending business. In addition, Peachtree expands its array of high-quality, diversified investment strategies and vehicles by launching a 1031 Exchange DST program to enhance its tax deferral strategies in the hospitality sector. Due to Peachtree’s expansion into non-hospitality investments across the ecosystem, the company drops “Hotel” from the name and becomes Peachtree Group, continuing to grow beyond hospitality.
$9B+ Asset Value and $2.5B+ Capital Under Management
As the portfolio of commercial real estate investments expanded, Peachtree consolidated all affiliated companies, notably Stonehill, Stonehill PACE, and Peachtree Hospitality Management, under the Peachtree Group umbrella. The firm adds to its vertically integrated management platform with the addition of an EB-5 program to access low-cost capital, diversify its funding sources and invest in job-creating projects across the U.S. Doubling in size since 2020, Peachtree Group has achieved renowned success through investments based on its ability to deploy capital opportunistically through business cycles, taking advantage of its holistic view of the market.
