"Extend and Pretend"—Just as Hamlet famously questioned, "To be or not to be," we are also on the brink of a crucial revelation. Are we facing a seismic shift with sustained higher interest rates, a largely overlooked issue? How will this shift affect commercial real estate and other asset classes in both the short and long term? Are the public and private sectors ready for what appears to be the inevitable? Today, we face more questions than answers, and indecision is no longer viable in a higher interest rate environment.
Unlike in the past few downturns, such as COVID, the Global Financial Crisis and the dotcom bust, the Fed significantly reduced interest rates, enabling owners of commercial real estate and lenders to easily engage in "Extend and Pretend," even when cash flows were negative or razor-thin, thanks to the exceptionally low interest costs.
Today, we are in a commercial real estate recession showing no signs of abating. The economy boasts considerable strength, driven by a strong job market, and record liquidity is on the sidelines. I do not see the necessary catalysts to revert interest rates to levels seen in previous cycles. Therefore, I don't see “Extend and Pretend” to be an effective strategy and would prepare for more bankruptcies, foreclosures and forced sales as reality sets in that we are in a new rate paradigm or maybe just a return to normalcy that, unfortunately, will be destructive to values, especially to the lower cap rate assets. Ultimately, amidst any market disruption, there will be pivotal opportunities for those with the decisiveness and the liquidity to seize them at the right moment.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 1, 2024, in response to a Wall Street Journal article titled: Even If the Fed Cuts, the Days of ultralow Rates are Over.
Follow Greg Friedman and Peachtree Group on LinkedIn
Greg Friedman and Mitul Patel form Peachtree Hotel Group as a family office to invest in premium-branded select service hotels.
Peachtree launched complementary divisions to develop and operate hotels, Peachtree Hospitality Development and Peachtree Hospitality Management, respectively. Over the next decade, the company continues to rapidly grow its portfolio of limited- and select-service hotels, becoming one of the nation's fastest-growing hotel acquisition, management, development and ownership groups in premium-branded hotels under the Marriott, Starwood, Hilton, Hyatt, and InterContinental Hotel group flags.
Jatin Desai joins Peachtree as managing principal chief investment officer and chief financial officer. The company expands investment offerings beyond equity investing into credit investments, acquiring debt positions secured by hotel and other real estate assets. As the Great Financial Crisis took hold, Peachtree implemented a distressed investment strategy and invested in 47 distressed hotels.
Peachtree launched Stonehill, a direct commercial real estate lending division, to focus on debt originations and note acquisitions. Stonehill focuses on transitional assets and sectors of the credit market that traditionally have had more limited access to financing, eventually becoming a top 10 U.S. commercial real estate hotel lender as ranked by the Mortgage Bankers Association ("MBA").
Peachtree Group reorganized from a family office to a vertically integrated private equity firm. The company launched its first investment vehicle focused on acquiring and originating debt investments in select-service hotels.
Peachtree launched its first discretionary equity investment vehicle to acquire and develop premium-branded hotels and other commercial real estate assets.
Peachtree launches Revive Land Group, a land development division focused on designing, entitling and developing residential and mixed-use projects. Revive has since transacted on over $50MM of real estate, consisting of over 1,100 residential lots.
Stonehill PACE was established as a direct lender focusing on property assessed clean energy for diverse commercial real estate asset classes. Over time, it evolved into one of the prominent CPACE providers in the U.S., securing over $600 million in CPACE financing. Also, Peachtree initiated a mortgage Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) specializing in financing income-generating real estate. This REIT's scope involved acquiring or originating mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. The company further expanded its endeavours by investing into hotel development within Qualified Opportunity Zones. This strategic move aimed to leverage the tax deferral benefits offered by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
Peachtree PC Investors (PPCI), a FINRA-registered broker-dealer, becomes Peachtree's exclusive managing broker-dealer for the firms' investment offerings.
The onset of the pandemic triggered an unexpected "Black Swan" event, plunging the U.S. into a recession and significantly impacting various sectors, notably the commercial real estate industry, particularly in hospitality. In response, Peachtree initiated its most extensive investment initiative to date, focusing on real estate and related assets. This strategic move aimed to capitalize on the emerging opportunities resulting from market disruptions, operational inefficiencies, under-capitalizations, and expected cyclical rebounds. Throughout this period, the firm executed transactions totaling $3 billion in asset value, encompassing debt and equity investments. Notably, Peachtree acquired over 180 first mortgage notes as part of its investment activities, positioning itself within a diverse array of real estate assets.
Continued disruptions caused by the pandemic have led to financial strain among ownership groups and developers due to reduced access to capital. In response, the company introduces its twelfth sponsored investment vehicle, aiming to engage in opportunistic debt and equity investments. This strategic move capitalized on emerging investment opportunities within the hospitality industry and other real estate sectors that have been impacted, too.
Gala Media Capital was launched to finance the production of films and television
Daniel Siegel joins Stonehill as Principal CRE, bringing a team of experienced originators outside the hospitality industry to expand Peachtree's commercial lending business. In addition, Peachtree expands its array of high-quality, diversified investment strategies and vehicles by launching a 1031 Exchange DST program to enhance its tax deferral strategies in the hospitality sector. Due to Peachtree’s expansion into non-hospitality investments across the ecosystem, the company drops “Hotel” from the name and becomes Peachtree Group, continuing to grow beyond hospitality.
$9B+ Asset Value and $2.5B+ Capital Under Management
As the portfolio of commercial real estate investments expanded, Peachtree consolidated all affiliated companies, notably Stonehill, Stonehill PACE, and Peachtree Hospitality Management, under the Peachtree Group umbrella. The firm adds to its vertically integrated management platform with the addition of an EB-5 program to access low-cost capital, diversify its funding sources and invest in job-creating projects across the U.S. Doubling in size since 2020, Peachtree Group has achieved renowned success through investments based on its ability to deploy capital opportunistically through business cycles, taking advantage of its holistic view of the market.
As interest rates continue to increase, banks and other financial institutions are peeling back from commercial real estate lending. But one Atlanta private equity firm is seeing an opportunity — even in the aftermath of the March bank collapses. Over the past 12 months, Peachtree Group has been “aggressive” in lending to groups unable to source debt for projects, CEO Greg Friedman said. The firm is also seeking to buy debt from financial institutions looking to reduce their exposure to commercial real estate.
Many pivotal moments in Greg Friedman's life occurred against the backdrop of major economic shifts. He graduated college right before the dot-com bubble burst, and coincidentally walked away from an internet company he started at the tail-end of the boom. Just after he founded Peachtree Group, the private equity firm he leads, the Great Recession began, and he and his partners had to shift their business model. Friedman knows firsthand the power of pivoting, which he says helped to lead his firm’s success more than 15 years later. Peachtree Group now counts 250 team members across all of its divisions.
