"Extend and Pretend"—Just as Hamlet famously questioned, "To be or not to be," we are also on the brink of a crucial revelation. Are we facing a seismic shift with sustained higher interest rates, a largely overlooked issue? How will this shift affect commercial real estate and other asset classes in both the short and long term? Are the public and private sectors ready for what appears to be the inevitable? Today, we face more questions than answers, and indecision is no longer viable in a higher interest rate environment.
Unlike in the past few downturns, such as COVID, the Global Financial Crisis and the dotcom bust, the Fed significantly reduced interest rates, enabling owners of commercial real estate and lenders to easily engage in "Extend and Pretend," even when cash flows were negative or razor-thin, thanks to the exceptionally low interest costs.
Today, we are in a commercial real estate recession showing no signs of abating. The economy boasts considerable strength, driven by a strong job market, and record liquidity is on the sidelines. I do not see the necessary catalysts to revert interest rates to levels seen in previous cycles. Therefore, I don't see “Extend and Pretend” to be an effective strategy and would prepare for more bankruptcies, foreclosures and forced sales as reality sets in that we are in a new rate paradigm or maybe just a return to normalcy that, unfortunately, will be destructive to values, especially to the lower cap rate assets. Ultimately, amidst any market disruption, there will be pivotal opportunities for those with the decisiveness and the liquidity to seize them at the right moment.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 1, 2024, in response to a Wall Street Journal article titled: Even If the Fed Cuts, the Days of ultralow Rates are Over.
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ATLANTA (June 24, 2024) – Peachtree Group, a leading private equity firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, has been proudly named to Inc.'s annual Best Workplaces list. This prestigious recognition not only highlights our company's excellence but also our team's dedication to creating exceptional workplaces and company cultures. This award is a testament to our continuous growth and success, further solidifying our previous Top Place to Work recognition from USA Today.
"Recognitions like Inc.'s annual Best Workplaces and USA Today's Top Places to Work are particularly meaningful to us because they reflect our team members' positive feedback, something we deeply value," said Greg Friedman, Peachtree's managing principal and CEO. "Winning these awards demonstrates our commitment to culture and inclusion truly resonates with our team. We believe in providing a healthy work/life balance to support our team members. When our team feels cared for, they show even stronger commitment to their work, leading to positive business impacts and increased employee engagement."
Inc. selected 543 honorees this year. Each nominated company participated in an employee survey, which included topics such as management effectiveness, perks, fostering employee growth and overall company culture.
"Each year, Inc.'s Best Workplaces program recognizes the very best in terms of companies that have fostered a truly amazing culture," says Inc. editor-in-chief Mike Hofman. "We use hard metrics and data as well as qualitative measures for judging in order to find the very best—and we're proud that the program is highly selective."
In addition to being named as one of Inc.'s Best Workplaces and USAToday’s Top Place to Work, Peachtree’s Friedman, Jatin Desai, managing principal and CFO, and Daniel Siegel, principal and president, credit, were recipients of GlobeSt.’s 2024 Best Bosses in Commercial Real Estate Award, celebrating leaders who exemplify ambition, financial acumen, exceptional people skills and inspire innovation through their exemplary leadership. In addition, Michael Ritz, Peachtree executive vice president, investments, and Siegel were selected as Commercial Real Estate’s Aspiring Leaders of 2024.
About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, the company manages billions in capital across acquisitions, development and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow its investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.
Contact:
Charles Talbert
678-823-7683
ctalbert@peachtreegroup.com
There is a record amount of debt maturities in 2024 at close to $1T, and another $1T over the next two years, notes Greg Friedman CEO Peachtree Group.
In this interview with Schwab Nework, he discusses commercial real estate and how the market is still pricing in 50BPS of cuts between now and the end of the year, and its increasingly looking like faith rather than “data driven.”
Watch the full interview here.
It seems like the housing market is currently in a better position compared to previous economic recessions, such as the one in 2009. Back then, 26% of mortgaged residential properties had negative equity, while now it's only about 2.7%. Although industries reliant on debt, like commercial real estate, are facing challenges recalibrating to higher interest rates, it's unlikely that we're headed towards a major economic recession without a significant setback in the housing market.
The stability of the housing sector can help cushion against economic downturns, as it directly impacts consumer wealth and confidence, which in turn influences spending - a significant factor considering that consumer expenditures make up about 70% of the U.S. GDP. This stability enhances the likelihood of sustained economic growth rather than a descent into a recession.
This commentary originally appeared on Greg Friedman's LinkedIn page on May 15, 2024, in response to a Bloomberg article by Alexandre Tanzi titled: "Seriously Underwater' Home Mortgages Tick Up Across the US.
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Learn more about Peachtree Group's Credit division.
