The Federal Reserve's 50 basis points cut to the Fed funds rate in September has sparked fresh conversations about its impact on commercial real estate (CRE) investments. While there's optimism in some corners about a return to a lower rate environment, the bond market signals a different story, with long-term rates remaining high and inflation risks persisting. This is a good reminder that short-term rates, set by the Fed, and long-term rates, like the 10-yearTreasury, often move independently.
Today's higher rate environment reshapes the value fundamentals of CRE. The current 10-yearTreasury rate of around 4%—double the pre-2022 average—demands that CRE values recalibrate. Reports of a 20% drop in CRE values since 2022 peak levels require context; those valuations were rooted in a vastly different interest rate environment. Today’s scenario implies a slower growth trajectory, requiring investors to adapt to a "new game" of higher rates for longer.
Across CRE assets, different sectors respond to higher rates in distinct ways. Hotels, for example, benefit from solid demand as travel returns, while multifamily assets continue to show resilience despite refinancing pressures. Office assets, however, face significant stress due to both secular and rate-driven challenges.
Even as the Fed cuts rates, refinancing on previously low-rate debt presents ongoing challenges for CRE assets, especially those with upcoming maturity dates. Higher rates elevate the cost of debt and squeeze cash flows while impacting the overall asset valuations, placing additional stress.
Despite headwinds, the current environment offers unique opportunities to strategic, agile investors. While higher rates may drive down asset values, for those prepared to navigate today's market with moderate leverage and a forward-looking strategy, today's challenges can evolve into future tailwinds. As the Fed's recent moves signal a "higher for longer" era, CRE investors who adapt swiftly may find unprecedented opportunities, making this a prime moment for decisive action in commercial real estate.
See Peachtree Group’s CEO and Managing Principal, Greg Friedman discuss this topic on CNBC’s Fast Money.
Many pivotal moments in Greg Friedman's life occurred against the backdrop of major economic shifts. He graduated college right before the dot-com bubble burst, and coincidentally walked away from an internet company he started at the tail-end of the boom. Just after he founded Peachtree Group, the private equity firm he leads, the Great Recession began, and he and his partners had to shift their business model. Friedman knows first hand the power of pivoting, which he says helped to lead his firm’s success more than 15 years later. Peachtree Group now counts 250 team members across all of its divisions.
Amid a market downturn, the retail space continues to defy inflationary pressures. Retailers seemingly didn’t get the memo of a softened market and are instead poised to continue opening storefronts and leasing space across the US. How can this possibly be? Mortgage Professional America turned to Greg Friedman, founder and CEO of commercial real estate private equity investor and lender Peachtree Group for answers.
After many years focusing on the hospitality sector, Peachtree has recently expanded its investment strategy to other asset classes, transitioning from Peachtree Hotel Group to Peachtree Group. Together with its lending division, Stonehill, the private equity investor and lender is now active across all real estate sectors, including retail—which has been grabbing headlines in the past few years due to the multiple changes it underwent. Commercial Property Executive asked Peachtree Group Founder & CEO Greg Friedman to talk about the opportunities and challenges for investors looking at this constantly evolving asset class. Today, retail seems to be defying inflationary pressures as retailers continue to open storefronts and leasing spaces across the U.S. For more market insights from Peachtree Group CEO Greg Friedman, follow him on LinkedIn.
