Adapting to Change: How Higher Interest Rates are Shaping Commercial Real Estate Investment Strategies

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Peachtree Group recently had the privilege of hosting David Bitner, a renowned expert in the commercial real estate industry, on our quarterly market update call. As the global head of research for Newmark, a leading commercial real estate advisor, David's insights on the ongoing transition in commercial real estate (CRE) were invaluable. His discussion outlined a significant shift in the commercial real estate market, highlighting the transition from a low-interest rate environment post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to a period of higher rates that are reshaping investment strategies.

Highlights from the conversation included:

  • Interest Rates and Market Transition: The shift from historically low interest rates to a "more normal rate     paradigm," emphasizing the end of a prolonged period of declining     rates. This shift will likely affect all risk assets, including commercial real estate, by reducing the tailwinds that previously inflated asset prices and supported various investment strategies.
  • Impact on CRE and Investments: As interest rates rise, the cost of borrowing increases, impacting the valuation and affordability of real estate investments. This shift could lead to higher capitalization rates (cap rates) and change the dynamics of investment returns, making it crucial for investors to adapt their strategies     accordingly. Floating rate debt, once considered a cheaper option, may no longer be the most economical option due to rising rates.
  • Market Volatility and Opportunities: While increased volatility in the market is expected as it adjusts to the new rate environment, it also brings a silver lining of opportunities. This can lead to both risks and opportunities. While some investors may face challenges, those with "dry powder" or readily available capital might find attractive entry points into the market, fostering a sense of optimism amidst the changes.
  • Long-term Outlook and Strategy Adjustments: Investors need to prepare for a sustained period of higher interest rates and adjust their strategies to remain viable. This includes expecting higher costs of debt and being cautious of investment valuations that do not adequately account for the new economic conditions.
  • Banking Sector and CRE Debt: There's a concern about the impact of rising rates on the banking sector, particularly smaller regional banks heavily invested in CRE loans. The potential for increased defaults and financial strain on these banks could lead to broader economic implications if not managed carefully.
  • Long-term Implications for Asset Values and     Investment Returns: The long-term outlook is cautious, with expectations of continued market adjustment to the higher rate environment. This adjustment is anticipated to be gradual, with investors continuing to reassess risk and return parameters.

Overall, the discussion highlights a transformative period in the commercial real estate market, prompted by the shift to a higher interest rate environment. This change presents an opportunity to refine investment strategies, enabling investors to navigate and capitalize on the evolving market dynamics effectively.

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ATLANTA (April 3, 2024) – Peachtree Group ("Peachtree") announced the elevation of three senior executives, expanding their roles to strengthen the firm’s executive leadership team. The promotions include Michael Harper to president of hotel lending, Jared Schlosser to executive vice president of hotel lending and head of CPACE and Michael Ritz to executive vice president of investments.

"These appointments underscore Peachtree's commitment to its core growth initiatives in hotel lending, as well as fostering talent from within our own ranks, with an eye toward further diversifying its allocation strategies as it taps into new investment opportunities," said Greg Friedman, Peachtree's CEO and managing principal.

Since joining Peachtree in 2014, Harper has distinguished himself through a succession of leadership roles, directing the company's credit business, particularly in loan originations and strategic acquisition of credit portfolios. Since joining, he has led the team through over 500 investments totaling over $6 billion. As president, he is responsible for the entirety of Peachtree's credit platform for hotels, guiding all facets of the credit business.

Schlosser's promotion to executive vice president of hotel lending and head of CPACE reflects his exceptional performance and extensive knowledge of the hotel loan origination processes and the firm's Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy (CPACE) program. His significant contributions since joining the firm in 2019 have been crucial in advancing Peachtree's CPACE program, which now exceeds $800 million in transactions and has become one of the largest in the U.S. Furthermore, since taking over hotel originations at the start of 2022, Peachtree has completed more than $1.5 billion in hotel loans, further demonstrating his expertise and effectiveness in these dual roles.

Ritz has been elevated to the position of executive vice president of investments and will oversee Peachtree's credit and equity investments across commercial real estate and other ventures.  He joined Peachtree in 2017, and his promotion recognizes his expertise in successfully managing and growing a portfolio of investments that is now approaching $10 billion in transaction asset value.

 

Peachtree was recently ranked as the tenth largest U.S. commercial real estate hotel lender, its third consecutive year in the top ten, by the Mortgage Bankers Association ("MBA") 2023 loan origination rankings.

About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, we manage billions in capital across acquisitions, development, and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow our investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.

Contact:

Charles Talbert

678-823-7683

ctalbert@peachtreegroup.com

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The hotel industry has had a remarkable recovery in the post-COVID era, marked by strong fundamentals, limited supply and increased capital inflows, making it an attractive investment option.

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Listen to Peachtree's discussion with Bryan Younge, EVP Newmark here.

 

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The industry witnessed an unprecedented come back after the pandemic. 

 

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Macro Challenges: Despite its success, the industry faces challenges like staffing shortages, wage growth and inflation.

 

Hotel Performance – Segment: Closely examined the performance across various segments of the hotel industry, including commercial, group, leisure, and extended stay, as well as different distribution channels. These channels are crucial for predicting occupancy trends and Average Daily Rate (ADR), especially in the current volatile inflationary environment.

 

Key observations include:

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Predictive Analysis: Discussed methods for predicting future pricing trends in the hotel industry, including analyzing room rates and booking adjustments, the personal savings rate and its impact on the travel sector, and the performance of different hotel market segments and their recovery post-pandemic.

 

Transaction Market: An equilibrium is emerging in the transaction market, with buyers and sellers reaching common ground and avoiding distressed pricing. This indicates a healthy market with growth potential and abundant opportunities. 

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