상업용 부동산 분야에서 Peachtree의 실적은 인상적입니다.우리 팀은 세 번의 중대한 경제적 혼란을 겪으면서 번창했습니다.우리의 고위 리더들은 이러한 성공에 중요한 역할을 했습니다.최근에 우리는 리더들에게 배운 교훈을 되돌아보고 그 경험이 앞으로의 사고 과정을 어떻게 변화시켰는지 이야기해 달라고 요청했습니다.
다음은 이러한 인사이트 중 몇 가지입니다.
“강력한 팀을 구성하는 것은 비전을 실현하는 데 매우 중요합니다.뛰어난 기술과 전문성을 바탕으로 개인을 선발하고 이들이 맡은 역할을 훌륭하게 수행할 수 있다고 믿으세요.팀의 역량을 강화하면 잠재력을 최대한 발휘하여 놀라운 성과를 창출하고 조직을 새로운 차원으로 끌어올릴 수 있습니다.”
그렉 프리드먼과 자틴 데사이 — 경영진
“선견지명은 투자 과정에서 매우 중요하며 지역 경제 요인과 함께 거시 경제 상황을 지속적으로 고려해야 합니다.이러한 이중 분석을 통해 미묘한 기회를 식별하고 위험을 보다 효과적으로 관리할 수 있습니다.글로벌 및 지역적 통찰력을 통합함으로써 정보에 입각한 전략적 결정을 내리고 투자의 장기적 성공 가능성을 높일 수 있습니다.”
그렉 프리드먼, 대표 겸 CEO
“탄력성을 유지하기 위해 충분한 유동성을 확보하십시오.우리는 펀드에 이러한 접근 방식을 구현하고 지속적으로 유지해 왔습니다.내부 수익률 (IRR) 에 영향을 미칠 수 있지만, 이를 통해 시장 변동성을 견디고 자산을 유지할 수 있을 것입니다.자산 가치는 일반적으로 경기 침체를 극복할 수 있는 충분한 자본이 확보되면 반등합니다.”
자틴 데사이, 매니징 디렉터 겸 CFO
“개발 과정에는 항상 도전과 승리가 수반되며, 특히 Covid 기간 동안 이러한 현실이 강조되었습니다.이전의 경기 침체는 주로 재정적 측면을 중심으로 이루어졌지만, 팬데믹으로 인해 비용, 노동력 및 자재 공급망에 혼란이 생겼습니다.정상에 도달하는 데에는 거의 3년이 걸렸으며, 이 기간 동안 우리는 이러한 전선에서 꾸준히 위험을 완화할 수 있었습니다.이 점에서 프로세스, 타이밍, 조달 전략 및 숙련된 계약업체와의 협업에 대한 조정이 매우 중요했습니다.이러한 혼란에도 불구하고, 특히 신규 자산 또는 유사 신규 자산의 경우 일일 평균 금리가 지속적으로 상승하는 추세를 보였습니다.”
미툴 파텔, 교장
“다양한 출구 시나리오를 예상하십시오. SBA 재융자 전략으로 투자 중 하나는 성공했지만 다른 하나는 어려움에 부딪혔습니다.대출자와 관련된 법적 문제로 인해 SBA 자격 요건이 박탈되어 대출 재융자 문제가 발생했습니다.돌이켜보면 우리는 단일 출구 출처에 너무 의존하고 있었기 때문에 이제는 여러 가지 (재융자, 매각, 대출 매각) 출구 옵션을 이용할 수 있도록 거래를 인수합니다.”
마이클 하퍼, 호텔 렌딩 회장
“다양한 수준의 다양한 거래에 지속적으로 노출되어 협상 중에 패턴을 파악하고 문제를 예측할 수 있었습니다.이러한 깊이 있는 경험을 통해 프로세스를 간소화하고 중요한 문제에 집중하고 불필요한 방해 요소를 피할 수 있는 능력이 향상되었습니다.궁극적으로 효율성이 가장 중요합니다.”
케빈 캐딘, 법률 고문
“우선 순위는 개별 거래를 관리하는 것보다 파이프라인을 구축하는 데 있습니다.진정한 가치는 파이프라인 자체에 있는 것이지 용어 시트에 요약된 거래가 아닙니다.이러한 접근 방식을 통해 즉각적인 결과에 대한 압박 없이 자유롭게 협상할 수 있습니다.따라서 추가 기회의 깊이를 잘 알고 있고 지속적으로 기회를 창출할 수 있도록 개발된 채널에 대한 확신이 있기 때문에 계약 조건이나 추가 수익금을 미루는 일이 거의 없습니다.”
다니엘 시겔, CRE 회장 겸 회장
“90% 의 법칙.정보의 90% 또는 원하는 결과물의 90% 를 기준으로 결정을 내리는 것이 더 나은 경우가 많습니다.완벽을 위한 마지막 10% 는 분석 마비로 이어지는 경우가 많으며, 기다림으로 인한 기회 비용은 종종 마지막 10% 를 얻었을 때 달성한 가치보다 큽니다.완벽한 것은 없습니다.”
브라이언 월드먼, 최고 투자 책임자
The commercial real estate industry has entered a transformative period defined by Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. The interplay of macro-economic pressures, financial challenges and anticipated policy changes from the new administration has created a volatile environment that demands adaptability and strategic thinking from stakeholders.
The chaos in CRE stems from structural shifts and economic headwinds reshaping the industry. Elevated interest rates have fundamentally altered investment returns, making debt more expensive and refinancing significantly harder. An ongoing "wall of debt maturities," totaling $3.6 trillion over the next 36 months, will force owners to manage or restructure obligations under far less favorable conditions than when loans were originated.
We are at historic levels of debt maturing as we are at the tail end of a wave of CRE loans maturing, many of which originated before 2022, particularly in 2014 and 2015, reflecting the prevalent 10-year loan terms of that period. To put this into context, the average interest rate on CRE loans originated in 2024 was roughly 6.2% versus the 4.3% rate on maturing mortgages—a nearly200-basis-point increase, according to S&P Global.
Meanwhile, the new administration's plans to cut costs and tighten immigration policies introduce uncertainty, complicating operational and labor-related decisions. While the immigration policy discussions may create short-term volatility, its impact on long-term CRE investments is expected to be minimal. These discussions serve as an "eye candy" distraction without substantial consequences for capital deployment or the asset class's attractiveness.
These factors foster a chaotic and volatile environment, disrupting traditional approaches to ownership, transactions and refinancing.
CRE investments are inherently complex, and the current chaotic market magnifies these challenges. Rising debt obligations now exceed asset performance, particularly as rent growth and NOI struggle to keep pace with increasing costs. Market stress varies across sectors, with some assets thriving while others falter under outdated financing terms and reduced liquidity.
The complications stemming from broken capital stacks and operational challenges are expected to peak this year. Higher interest rates and more conservative lending criteria make debt restructuring increasingly tricky. Insurance and heightened compliance costs exacerbate inefficiencies, further straining asset performance.
In this challenging environment, creativity is no longer optional but essential. Owners and investors must adopt innovative strategies to structure deals, recapitalize assets and maintain competitiveness.
Strategies like CPACE financing, which enhances building efficiency while addressing funding gaps, and EB-5 investments, which access foreign capital through immigrant investor programs, offer viable solutions. Preferred equity and mezzanine debt can fill capital stack gaps, while private credit provides customized financing arrangements tailored to asset-specific needs. Creative structuring, such as Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs), maximizes tax advantages and enhances cash flow predictability.
Tax considerations should also play a vital role in determining your investment strategies. Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs) offer appealing solutions for 1031 exchange investors seeking tax deferral and portfolio diversification through high-quality assets.
Opportunity Zones remain one of the most significant tax benefits across the country while furthering the cause of urban redevelopment. These tax-advantaged instrument allows investors to reduce their tax burdens and extract more value from their CRE investments.
This year will be a watershed moment for commercial real-estate stakeholders. The erratic nature of the market means that financial tools must be intimately understood, and alternative approaches embraced. Success will come down to adaptability, innovation and a deep understanding of market dynamics. Although the headwinds will be persistent, this environment provides unique opportunities for those who are prepared to embrace the four Cs and help define a creative way forward.
The Peachtree Group team will share their insights into how the market is shaping up and how they plan to adapt their strategies to navigate Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. Each aims to overcome the headwinds and seize the opportunities presented in this transformative period for the commercial real estate industry.
The Peachtree Group team shares their insights into how the market is shaping up and how they plan to adapt their strategies to navigate Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. Each aims to overcome the headwinds and seize the opportunities presented in this transformative period for the commercial real estate industry. Read Peachtree's House Views Here.
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ATLANTA (Jan. 6, 2025) – Peachtree Group ("Peachtree") announced today that Josh Rubinger has joined as senior vice president of national accounts for its broker-dealer affiliate, Peachtree PC Investors("PPCI"). Rubinger’s role will focus on business development, overseeing relationships with broker-dealers and registered investment advisors (“RIAs”)and supporting the distribution of the firm’s investment offerings.
With more than two decades of experience in financial services and a proven track record of developing strong client relationships, Rubinger's leadership will further strengthen Peachtree's commitment to delivering tailored investment solutions through PPCI.
“This strategic hire underscores our focus on grow thand strengthening Peachtree’s position as a trusted partner within the investment community,” said Brian Cho, president of PPCI. “Josh's extensive experience and strong network of relationships with broker-dealers and RIAs position him as a key asset to our team. His expertise will be instrumental in shaping our selling group and broadening our market reach.”
Prior to joining PPCI, Rubinger served as senior vice president and head of national accounts for Ashford Securities, a broker-dealer wholly owned by Ashford Inc., an alternative asset management company specializing in the real estate and hospitality sectors.
Before Ashford, he served as senior vice president of national accounts for Lightstone Capital Markets, the capital markets division of The Lightstone Group. Rubinger also served as vice president and East Coast national accounts manager at Thompson National Properties LLC. Before entering the alternative investment space, he held roles with Oppenheimer Funds andColumbia Funds.
Rubinger holds a bachelor’s degree from Hamilton College and FINRA Series 7 and 63 securities licenses.
About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, the company manages billions in capital across acquisitions, development and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow its investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.
The Outlook For Commercial Real Estate in 2025
Despite markets bracing for more deregulation under President-elect Donald Trump, Greg Friedman says higher interest rates will damage commercial real estate. He believes regional banks will stay conservative in a high-rate environment, which can squeeze the CRE market. However, Greg says his firm has seen success in multi-family and retail spaces.
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