호텔 산업은 탄탄한 펀더멘털, 제한된 공급 및 자본 유입 증가로 특징지어지는 포스트 코비드 시대에 눈에 띄는 회복세를 보였기 때문에 매력적인 투자 옵션이 되었습니다.
피치트리 그룹 CEO 그렉 프리드먼 (Greg Friedman) 은 뉴마크의 수석 부사장인 브라이언 영지 (Bryan Younge) 와 만나 이러한 놀라운 회복과 현재 시장 상황에 대해 논의했습니다.브라이언은 뉴마크에서 호스피탈리티 프랙티스 그룹을 이끌고 있으며 상업용 부동산 자문을 선도하고 있습니다.아래는 그의 전문 분석과 통찰력을 요약한 것입니다.
들어보세요 여기에서 피치트리와 EVP 뉴마크 브라이언 영의 이야기를 들어보세요.
업계는 팬데믹 이후 전례 없는 재발을 목격했습니다.
제한된 신규 호텔 공급:높은 여행 수요와 맞물려 제한된 신규 호텔 공급은 기존 호텔 재고를 활용하여 급증하는 관심을 활용할 수 있는 유리한 시나리오가 조성됩니다.
투자 매력도:호텔 부문의 탄력성은 투자 수단으로서의 매력을 높여 상당한 수익을 제공합니다.이는 이 부문에 투자할 수 있는 상당한 자본과 드라이 파우더에 반영되어 있습니다.
거시적 과제:성공에도 불구하고 업계는 인력 부족, 임금 인상 및 인플레이션과 같은 문제에 직면해 있습니다.
호텔 퍼포먼스 — 세그먼트:상업, 단체, 레저, 장기 체류 및 다양한 유통 채널을 포함한 호텔 산업의 다양한 부문에서의 성과를 면밀히 조사했습니다.이러한 채널은 특히 현재의 변동성이 큰 인플레이션 환경에서 점유 추세와 ADR (Average Daily Rate Daily Rate) 을 예측하는 데 매우 중요합니다.
예측 분석:객실 요금 및 예약 조정, 개인 저축률과 여행 부문에 미치는 영향, 다양한 호텔 시장 부문의 성과 및 팬데믹 이후 회복 분석을 포함하여 호텔 산업의 미래 가격 추세를 예측하는 방법에 대해 논의했습니다.
거래 시장:구매자와 판매자가 공통점을 찾고 부실 가격 책정을 피하면서 거래 시장에서 균형이 형성되고 있습니다.이는 성장 잠재력과 풍부한 기회를 갖춘 건전한 시장을 나타냅니다.
The commercial real estate industry has entered a transformative period defined by Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. The interplay of macro-economic pressures, financial challenges and anticipated policy changes from the new administration has created a volatile environment that demands adaptability and strategic thinking from stakeholders.
The chaos in CRE stems from structural shifts and economic headwinds reshaping the industry. Elevated interest rates have fundamentally altered investment returns, making debt more expensive and refinancing significantly harder. An ongoing "wall of debt maturities," totaling $3.6 trillion over the next 36 months, will force owners to manage or restructure obligations under far less favorable conditions than when loans were originated.
We are at historic levels of debt maturing as we are at the tail end of a wave of CRE loans maturing, many of which originated before 2022, particularly in 2014 and 2015, reflecting the prevalent 10-year loan terms of that period. To put this into context, the average interest rate on CRE loans originated in 2024 was roughly 6.2% versus the 4.3% rate on maturing mortgages—a nearly200-basis-point increase, according to S&P Global.
Meanwhile, the new administration's plans to cut costs and tighten immigration policies introduce uncertainty, complicating operational and labor-related decisions. While the immigration policy discussions may create short-term volatility, its impact on long-term CRE investments is expected to be minimal. These discussions serve as an "eye candy" distraction without substantial consequences for capital deployment or the asset class's attractiveness.
These factors foster a chaotic and volatile environment, disrupting traditional approaches to ownership, transactions and refinancing.
CRE investments are inherently complex, and the current chaotic market magnifies these challenges. Rising debt obligations now exceed asset performance, particularly as rent growth and NOI struggle to keep pace with increasing costs. Market stress varies across sectors, with some assets thriving while others falter under outdated financing terms and reduced liquidity.
The complications stemming from broken capital stacks and operational challenges are expected to peak this year. Higher interest rates and more conservative lending criteria make debt restructuring increasingly tricky. Insurance and heightened compliance costs exacerbate inefficiencies, further straining asset performance.
In this challenging environment, creativity is no longer optional but essential. Owners and investors must adopt innovative strategies to structure deals, recapitalize assets and maintain competitiveness.
Strategies like CPACE financing, which enhances building efficiency while addressing funding gaps, and EB-5 investments, which access foreign capital through immigrant investor programs, offer viable solutions. Preferred equity and mezzanine debt can fill capital stack gaps, while private credit provides customized financing arrangements tailored to asset-specific needs. Creative structuring, such as Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs), maximizes tax advantages and enhances cash flow predictability.
Tax considerations should also play a vital role in determining your investment strategies. Delaware Statutory Trusts (DSTs) offer appealing solutions for 1031 exchange investors seeking tax deferral and portfolio diversification through high-quality assets.
Opportunity Zones remain one of the most significant tax benefits across the country while furthering the cause of urban redevelopment. These tax-advantaged instrument allows investors to reduce their tax burdens and extract more value from their CRE investments.
This year will be a watershed moment for commercial real-estate stakeholders. The erratic nature of the market means that financial tools must be intimately understood, and alternative approaches embraced. Success will come down to adaptability, innovation and a deep understanding of market dynamics. Although the headwinds will be persistent, this environment provides unique opportunities for those who are prepared to embrace the four Cs and help define a creative way forward.
The Peachtree Group team will share their insights into how the market is shaping up and how they plan to adapt their strategies to navigate Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. Each aims to overcome the headwinds and seize the opportunities presented in this transformative period for the commercial real estate industry.
The Peachtree Group team shares their insights into how the market is shaping up and how they plan to adapt their strategies to navigate Chaos, Complexity, Complications and Creativity. Each aims to overcome the headwinds and seize the opportunities presented in this transformative period for the commercial real estate industry. Read Peachtree's House Views Here.
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ATLANTA (Jan. 6, 2025) – Peachtree Group ("Peachtree") announced today that Josh Rubinger has joined as senior vice president of national accounts for its broker-dealer affiliate, Peachtree PC Investors("PPCI"). Rubinger’s role will focus on business development, overseeing relationships with broker-dealers and registered investment advisors (“RIAs”)and supporting the distribution of the firm’s investment offerings.
With more than two decades of experience in financial services and a proven track record of developing strong client relationships, Rubinger's leadership will further strengthen Peachtree's commitment to delivering tailored investment solutions through PPCI.
“This strategic hire underscores our focus on grow thand strengthening Peachtree’s position as a trusted partner within the investment community,” said Brian Cho, president of PPCI. “Josh's extensive experience and strong network of relationships with broker-dealers and RIAs position him as a key asset to our team. His expertise will be instrumental in shaping our selling group and broadening our market reach.”
Prior to joining PPCI, Rubinger served as senior vice president and head of national accounts for Ashford Securities, a broker-dealer wholly owned by Ashford Inc., an alternative asset management company specializing in the real estate and hospitality sectors.
Before Ashford, he served as senior vice president of national accounts for Lightstone Capital Markets, the capital markets division of The Lightstone Group. Rubinger also served as vice president and East Coast national accounts manager at Thompson National Properties LLC. Before entering the alternative investment space, he held roles with Oppenheimer Funds andColumbia Funds.
Rubinger holds a bachelor’s degree from Hamilton College and FINRA Series 7 and 63 securities licenses.
About Peachtree Group
Peachtree Group is a vertically integrated investment management firm specializing in identifying and capitalizing on opportunities in dislocated markets, anchored by commercial real estate. Today, the company manages billions in capital across acquisitions, development and lending, augmented by services designed to protect, support and grow its investments. For more information, visit www.peachtreegroup.com.
The Outlook For Commercial Real Estate in 2025
Despite markets bracing for more deregulation under President-elect Donald Trump, Greg Friedman says higher interest rates will damage commercial real estate. He believes regional banks will stay conservative in a high-rate environment, which can squeeze the CRE market. However, Greg says his firm has seen success in multi-family and retail spaces.
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